The numbers do not mean red states are turning blue. They do suggest Trump’s second-term standing is weaker even in places that powered his 2024 win.
Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in at least 11 states he carried comfortably in 2024, according to a Civiqs poll cited by Newsweek. The state-by-state polling shows more people disapprove than approve of his job performance in those double-digit Trump states, while nationally he stood at 36 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval as of July 30 — a net -24.
The article links the findings to political implications ahead of November’s midterms, when Republicans will be trying to protect narrow congressional majorities and keep Trump’s second-term agenda moving.
The red-state warning sign
Approval ratings are not election results. They do not automatically tell us how voters will behave when faced with a congressional ballot, a local candidate and a different set of choices than a presidential race.
Still, the Civiqs snapshot is notable because it points to weakness outside the usual battleground map. Newsweek reported that Trump’s approval rating was positive in every state he won by at least 10 percentage points when he returned to office in January 2025. By late July, that was no longer the case in at least 11 of those states.
That shift matters because midterms often punish the president’s party, especially when voters are frustrated with the direction of the country. A president can remain dominant among loyal supporters and still become a drag if enough occasional voters stay home, split tickets or simply sour on the party in power.
Eleven states below zero
In polling terms, underwater means a politician’s disapproval is higher than approval. The Civiqs data cited by Newsweek showed Trump with negative net approval in these states he carried by double digits in 2024:
- Alaska: -14 net approval, with 40 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
- Florida: -12, with 42 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
- Iowa: Newsweek’s Civiqs summary listed a negative rating, with 44 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.
- Kentucky: -3, with 39 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.
- Louisiana: -4, with 45 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.
- Missouri: -7, with 44 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
- Mississippi: -1, with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
- Nebraska: -3, with 45 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
- Ohio: -13, with 40 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.
- South Carolina: -9, with 42 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
- Texas: -13, with 40 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
Some of those margins are small. Mississippi’s one-point negative rating, for example, is not the same political signal as a double-digit deficit in Texas, Ohio, Alaska or Florida. But the broader pattern is what will get attention: more than a handful of reliably Republican states are no longer giving Trump net-positive reviews.
Comfortable wins are not immunity
Trump’s 2024 performance in these states was strong enough that none should be confused with a classic toss-up. A double-digit presidential win usually suggests a deep partisan cushion, not a state on the edge of flipping.
But approval ratings measure job performance, not partisan identity. A voter can disapprove of Trump and still vote Republican. A voter can dislike Democratic alternatives more. And a voter can view the president negatively while backing a GOP Senate, House or gubernatorial candidate for local reasons.
That is the Republican counterargument: red states are still red, and presidential approval polls are a blunt tool for predicting district-by-district outcomes. Candidate quality, turnout operations, the economy, local issues and the national mood all shape midterm results.
The concern for the GOP is that midterms are decided at the margins. If Trump’s approval slump reduces enthusiasm among soft Republicans or pushes independents toward Democrats, the party does not need a red-state collapse to feel real pain.
Possible causes, real caveats
Newsweek reported that Trump’s net approval went negative in some of these states after he announced tariffs on U.S. trading partners in April of the previous year. In Kentucky and Missouri, the report said his approval went underwater after he announced a war with Iran in February.
Those timelines are suggestive, not proof. Polling movement can reflect many things at once: prices, foreign policy, media coverage, court fights, congressional battles, personal fatigue or disappointment with unmet expectations.
The Civiqs survey is also a rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. Newsweek reported that it had received more than 120,000 responses since Jan. 20, 2025, the day Trump returned to office for a second term. A large response pool helps, but state-level snapshots can still shift as new responses come in and as political conditions change.
The smartest read is not that one policy explains everything. It is that several pressure points may be accumulating at the same time, and the disapproval is now visible in states where Trump’s political floor has usually looked strongest.
Why Republicans are watching
The midterm stakes are straightforward. Republicans are trying to hold the House and Senate so they can keep advancing Trump’s agenda through the second half of his term. Democrats need to break that control to slow or block him.
A president with 36 percent national approval and 59 percent disapproval gives the opposition a simple message: make the election a referendum on the White House. That does not guarantee Democratic gains, but it gives them a framework for fundraising, candidate recruitment and turnout appeals.
Republicans have a different incentive. In competitive races, some candidates may try to keep Trump’s base engaged while localizing their campaigns around taxes, immigration, energy, crime or state-specific concerns. Others may lean harder into Trump if they believe their voters still see him as the party’s central figure.
That balancing act gets harder when the president is underwater not just in swing states, but in places he won comfortably. It narrows the room for error.
What remains unclear
The Civiqs numbers capture discontent, but they do not answer the biggest midterm question: who will vote? Registered-voter approval is one measure. The electorate that shows up in November may be older, more partisan and more motivated than the broader pool of people answering surveys.
It is also unclear how much Trump’s approval will transfer to down-ballot Republicans. In some races, Democratic candidates may succeed in tying GOP incumbents to the president. In others, local Republicans may survive because voters separate them from the White House or because the state’s partisan baseline remains too favorable.
For now, the takeaway is narrower but still important: Trump’s second-term approval problem is not confined to blue states or familiar battlegrounds. A Civiqs polling snapshot shows underwater ratings in at least 11 states he won comfortably in 2024, and that gives both parties a reason to treat November’s midterms as a test of Republican resilience, not just Democratic opportunity.
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