The eight-point result gives Republicans a new talking point in California's governor contest. But the poll's campaign backing and its gap from other surveys make methodology and the broader polling picture central to the debate.
Steve Hilton is within eight points of Xavier Becerra in a new California poll, with Becerra leading the Republican 49.2 percent to 41 percent in the governor’s race. The August 14-16 survey of 912 registered voters found 9.8 percent undecided, putting a closer-than-usual number into a contest where other recent polls have shown Becerra with much larger leads.
The result matters because Hilton’s campaign commissioned the survey, while independent polling and election forecasters still point to a difficult path for the Republican. The new number may sharpen the race’s political argument, but it does not by itself settle whether California has become genuinely competitive.
An eight-point race in one survey
The poll was conducted by David Wolfson, a pollster and faculty member in Columbia University’s Political Analytics graduate program. It used an MMS text-to-web method and reported a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Its topline result gives Becerra 49.2 percent support and Hilton 41 percent. With 9.8 percent of respondents undecided, both candidates still have voters to persuade before the November general election.
For Hilton, the finding is useful because it places him within single digits of a well-known Democrat in a state where Republicans have struggled in statewide races. His campaign has argued that the election should be focused on California issues, including affordability and the state’s direction under Democratic leadership.
Still, an eight-point deficit is a deficit, not a lead. And the survey’s value as a measure of the overall race depends heavily on how its sample, wording and turnout assumptions compare with other polls.
Why the poll’s sponsor matters
Campaign-commissioned polling is a normal part of modern elections. Candidates use it to test messages, assess voter groups and decide where to spend time and money. A campaign also has an obvious incentive to publicize results that show momentum or a narrower contest.
That does not mean the Wolfson poll is necessarily inaccurate. Its stated sample size, field dates, methodology and margin of error offer readers more information than an unexplained internal poll would. But sponsorship remains relevant context, especially when a result diverges sharply from surveys conducted by organizations without a candidate as the client.
The key question is not whether internal polling should be ignored. It is whether the result can be replicated by other pollsters using different methods and samples of California voters.
Polling is a snapshot, not a prediction. Even a technically sound survey can differ from another because of timing, the people reached, assumptions about who will vote and the way questions are asked.
Independent polls show a wider gap
The eight-point margin stands apart from other polling reported this summer. A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted with the Los Angeles Times from August 3-9, found Becerra ahead 55 percent to 37 percent among 2,310 likely voters—a margin of 18 points.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted from June 29 through July 6 put Becerra ahead 61 percent to 36 percent, a 25-point advantage. A mid-June Kreate Strategies poll also found a 25-point Becerra lead.
Those differences do not automatically prove one poll right and another wrong. The surveys were fielded at different times and used different voter screens. The Berkeley poll, for example, surveyed likely voters, while the Wolfson poll surveyed registered voters, a distinction that can matter in a midterm election.
But the pattern is important: the available independent surveys have consistently shown Becerra ahead by double digits. Until more polling moves toward the Hilton campaign’s result, the eight-point number looks more like an outlier or an early sign to test than a confirmed reshaping of the race.
California’s political math remains daunting
Becerra and Hilton emerged from California’s June jungle primary and will meet in the November general election. Becerra, who served as U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services in the Biden administration, was previously California attorney general and a member of Congress.
Hilton is a former Fox News host and a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron. He received Donald Trump’s endorsement in April and has described it as a potential turnout driver for his campaign.
California’s recent electoral history remains the larger obstacle for Republicans. Democrats hold nearly a two-to-one voter-registration advantage over Republicans, according to the reporting on the race, and no Republican has won a statewide California election since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2006 reelection as governor.
There are signs that Republican presidential performance has improved in the state without threatening Democratic control. Trump won about 32 percent of California’s vote in 2016, 34 percent in 2020 and a little more than 38 percent in 2024. Hilton’s challenge is converting any broader Republican improvement into a statewide coalition large enough to overcome California’s Democratic baseline.
Undecided voters are the opening
The 9.8 percent undecided in the Wolfson survey is one reason both campaigns will treat the result seriously. In a state as large and expensive as California, even a modestly movable bloc can shape campaign strategy, debate demands and advertising choices.
Hilton is likely to use the poll to argue that Becerra’s support is softer than previous surveys suggested. Becerra’s allies can point to the wider independent polling averages, the state’s registration advantage and the Democrat’s large edge in prediction markets as evidence that the underlying race remains favorable to him.
Prediction markets are not polls, and they should not be treated as election results. They do show, however, that traders have not broadly reacted as if the eight-point survey transformed the contest. Polymarket and Kalshi have continued to place Becerra’s chances far above Hilton’s, according to the reported market figures.
The practical test will come with additional public polling, especially surveys of likely voters conducted closer to Election Day. A sustained narrowing across multiple pollsters would be more meaningful than a single favorable campaign-backed result.
Debates could test the new narrative
Hilton has challenged Becerra to a series of debates in the coming months, though no schedule was clear in the reporting. Debates could give Hilton a chance to raise the state-focused issues his campaign says can loosen Democratic support.
Becerra, meanwhile, is expected to emphasize his government experience and frame Hilton through his association with Trump. That contrast captures the broader strategic dispute: whether California voters view this primarily as a referendum on state conditions or as a choice connected to national politics.
For now, the new poll changes the conversation more than it changes the race’s established fundamentals. It offers Hilton evidence that some voters may be open to a Republican message, while the larger body of available polling still gives Becerra a substantial advantage.
The clearest takeaway: Becerra leads Hilton in the new survey, but the unusually narrow margin needs confirmation from independent polls before it can be read as a decisive shift in California’s governor race.
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