Amy Acton’s narrow advantage over Vivek Ramaswamy is not large enough to establish a clear leader. But it adds to a run of surveys suggesting Ohio’s open governor’s race may be far more competitive than the state’s recent voting record would imply.
Amy Acton led Vivek Ramaswamy 46% to 44% in a Tulchin Research poll of Ohio’s governor’s race, a two-point advantage that was within the survey’s plus-or-minus 4-point margin of error. The result suggested a competitive Ohio governor’s race, not a settled one.
For both campaigns, that distinction matters. Acton’s edge offers Democrats evidence that they can contend statewide, while Ramaswamy can point to Ohio’s Republican lean and the poll’s statistical uncertainty as reasons the race remains fully within reach.
The lead is narrower than it looks
The Tulchin Research survey was conducted from July 29 through August 4 and was sponsored by Democratic attorney general candidate John Kulewicz. Along with Acton’s 46% and Ramaswamy’s 44%, it found 5% supporting another candidate and 6% undecided.
A two-point result inside a plus-or-minus 4-point margin of error cannot establish a durable statewide advantage for either candidate. The underlying race could be tied, or it could lean narrowly toward either campaign.
That does not make the poll irrelevant. It makes the proper reading more restrained: Acton has a plausible path, but the survey is a snapshot rather than an election forecast.
Other surveys show no clear favorite
The Tulchin poll fits a wider pattern of close public polling, even though the surveys have not consistently pointed to the same leader.
- A Times/Siena University survey of 601 likely voters, conducted June 15 to 28, found a 47%-47% tie, with a plus-or-minus 4.7-point margin of error.
- An AARP poll of 800 likely voters, conducted June 14 to 16, put Acton ahead 47% to 44%, with a plus-or-minus 3.5-point margin of error.
- A Fox News survey of 1,015 registered voters, conducted May 28 to June 1, showed Acton leading 50% to 49%, within a 3-point margin of error.
- A YouGov and Bowling Green State University poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted April 7 to 14, gave Ramaswamy a 48% to 47% edge. Its margin of error was 3.9 points.
The sequence is more informative than any one top-line number. Each candidate has appeared ahead in at least one survey, and none has built a commanding advantage.
There are reasons not to treat the numbers as interchangeable. Some polls surveyed likely voters and others registered voters; the field dates differ; and question wording and order can affect results. Still, the shared message is a contest with little visible room for complacency.
Ohio’s recent history favors Republicans
A close race would stand out against Ohio’s recent statewide political record. Donald Trump carried Ohio by about 11 percentage points in 2024 after winning the state by roughly 8 points in both 2016 and 2020.
Republicans have also held the governor’s office for years. Ohio last elected a Democratic governor in 2006, when Ted Strickland won. Republican John Kasich defeated Strickland in 2010, and Republican Mike DeWine has held the office since 2019.
DeWine cannot seek a third consecutive term, however, leaving an open-seat contest rather than a race against an incumbent. That changes the calculation for both parties.
Ramaswamy’s case rests partly on the GOP’s recent strength in rural communities and among many white working-class voters, including areas that once had stronger Democratic support. Acton’s argument is that an open race, a close national midterm environment and potential gains around Columbus and Cincinnati’s suburbs could produce a different statewide coalition.
Both candidates have coalition questions
Ramaswamy brings a national profile built during his 2024 presidential campaign. That recognition gives him an established audience, but it also places his state campaign inside broader national political disputes.
In late July, Ramaswamy was booed and heckled at a Young Americans for Liberty gathering in Cincinnati, including over his positions related to Israel. Whether that moment has any lasting effect on turnout or persuasion is unclear; a confrontation at an ideological event does not necessarily reflect the statewide electorate.
Acton faces her own coalition balancing act. She has drawn criticism from some LGBTQ+ activists over remarks that she does not support boys playing in girls’ sports. She has also said she supports Ohio’s Issue 3 voter-ID amendment, separating her from some Democrats.
Those positions could complicate support among parts of the Democratic coalition while helping Acton appeal to persuadable voters as less doctrinaire. The electoral value of that approach remains unproven and could involve tradeoffs between broader appeal and activist enthusiasm.
Markets and undecided voters add uncertainty
Political prediction markets have also reflected a close contest. At the time the figures were reported, Kalshi gave Ramaswamy a 51% chance of victory, while Polymarket gave Acton a 52% chance.
Those figures are not voter surveys. They reflect the prices traders are willing to pay for outcome contracts, and they can move quickly after polling, fundraising reports, debates or national events.
The 6% of Tulchin respondents who were undecided may be especially important in a race separated by two points. The 5% who selected another candidate could also affect the outcome if they ultimately consolidate behind one of the major-party contenders.
The clearest takeaway is that Acton’s 46%-44% edge gives Democrats a credible reason to invest in Ohio, while Ramaswamy retains a strong argument that the state’s Republican fundamentals and a razor-thin polling gap can still carry him to victory. The new survey raises the stakes, but it does not resolve the race.
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